NRI Papers
No. 217 November 1, 2017
  Electric Drive Vehicle Market Outlook toward 2030 and Impact on Relevant Industries  
Tomohide KAZAMA, Kazunori SUZUKI, Teiki CHO and Shotaro YOSHIHASHI

Many countries have been adopting increasingly stringent CO2 emissions regulations in support of vehicle electrification. Automakers have been strengthening their electrification strategies to meet toughening standards. The synergetic effect brought about by these efforts in the public and private sectors has been accelerating the growth of the electric drive vehicle market in anticipation of transitioning to all-electric vehicles. In Europe, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs) are bridging a shift to all-electric vehicles (EVs). China's market for new energy vehicles(EVs and PHEVs) is expected to expand rapidly until 2020. Even after subsidies have been phased out by 2020, it is unlikely that the market will shrink rapidly. In the U.S., the inauguration of the Trump administration may accelerate the bipolarization of electrification. In Japan, the market structure currently focusing on hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) may change.

In consideration of each region's approach to electrification and the electrification plan of each automaker, the authors estimated the size of the electric drive vehicle market (including EVs, PHEVs and HEVs). An optimistic estimate indicates that this market will reach a size of about 18 million units per year (about 17 percent of the overall passenger car market) by 2025.

The rapid expansion of the electric drive vehicle market may cause supply-demand tightness for lithium-ion batteries (LIB). To deal with a possible shortage of LIBs, automakers have been reviewing their strategies for procuring batteries and attempting to build strong partnerships with battery manufacturers. Even though the automotive industry has been shifting toward horizontal specialization, a trend of swinging back toward vertical integration has been seen. The impact of a rapidly rising electric drive vehicle market will extend to the upstream materials industry. With the aim of entering the global market, the LIB materials industry will see collaboration and partnerships between major materials manufacturers and specialized materials manufacturers. In this way, the industry is likely to experience reorganization.

The impacts of vehicle electrification on the automotive parts industry range from losses of business opportunities suffered by manufacturers of internal combustion engines and traditional transmissions to the acceleration of horizontal international specialization. In the energy industry, because electrification poses both opportunities and threats in terms of ensuring stable power supplies, the industry must work out appropriate operations and solutions to stabilize power supplies. The communications industry will see the emergence of new business opportunities by applying IoT to electric drive vehicle bodies and battery chargers.

Contents
I Electric Drive Vehicle Market Outlook toward 2030
II Prospects of Battery Industry Affected by the Expansion of the Electric Drive Vehicle Market
III Impact of Electrification on Relevant Industries

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